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Weather Underground:Weather Underground redirects here. For the weather service named Weather Underground, see Weather Underground (weather service).
Weatherman, also known as the Weather Underground Organization and, colloquially, sometimes 'the Weathermen', were a U.S. Radical Left organization consisting of splintered-off members and leaders of the Students for a Democratic Society. Its members referred to themselves as a "revolutionary organization of communist women and men," and carried out guerrilla actions, often characterized as terrorist, to achieve the revolutionary overthrow of the government of the United States. The group collapsed shortly after the U.S. withdrawal from Vietnam in 1975, which saw the general demise of the New Left, of which Weatherman had been a part.
Background
The group initially emerged from the campus-based anti-war and anti-racism ("civil rights") movements during US military action in Southeast Asia, especially Vietnam, which continued despite the significance of an increasing global desire to stop the war. In the U.S., that desire was particularly evident upon the outcome of the 1968 US presidential election. With militancy gradually supplanting nonviolence as the dominant form of anti-war action, Weatherman had concluded that university campus-based demonstrations needed to be supplemented with more dramatic and violent statements with potential to interfere with the U.S. war-making and internal security apparatuses. The Weathermen thought that guerrilla actions of this type would help to jump-start the revolution.
Originally, Weatherman was part of the Revolutionary Youth Movement within the Students for a Democratic Society. When they split - first from the RYM's Maoists, and then from SDS itself - Weatherman distinguished itself from other self-proclaimed revolutionary groups by claiming that there was no time to build a vanguard party and that revolutionary war against the United States government and the system of capitalism should begin immediately. To that end, Weatherman carried out a campaign of bombings, jailbreaks, and riots.
The name of the group derives from the Bob Dylan song "Subterranean Homesick Blues", which featured the lyrics "You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows." The lyrics had also been quoted at the bottom of an influential essay in the SDS newspaper, New Left Notes. Using this title Weatherman meant to appeal to the segment of American youth inspired to action for social justice by Dylan's songs. With the growing success of the Vietnamese revolt against foreign rule, the Cultural Revolution in China, the 1968 student revolts in Europe, Mexico City and other places, the emergence of the Tupamaros organization in Uruguay, and the success of Marxist-led independence movements throughout Africa, the Weathermen believed that any reasonable person could see worldwide revolution was imminent. It appears also that the 'Weatherman' moniker was meant as a rebuke against the Progressive Labor Party, whose Worker Student Alliance (WSA) SDS faction had succeeded in recruiting many SDSers to its ranks, and had allegedly co-opted the 1969 Chicago SDS convention.
The Weathermen were outspoken advocates of concepts that later came to be known as "white privilege" and identity politics. At the height of the United States ghetto rebellions of the Civil Rights Movement, Bernardine Dohrn said, "White youth must choose sides now. They must either fight on the side of the oppressed, or be on the side of the oppressor."
The opening salvo in the "Days of Rage," Weatherman's first event, came on the night of October 8 1969, when they blew up a statue dedicated to police casualties in the 1886 Haymarket Riot. Although the October 8 rally failed to draw as many participants as they had anticipated, the estimated two to three hundred who did attend shocked police by leading a riot through the Gold Coast neighborhood, smashing windows and cars. That night, six people were shot and seventy were arrested. Two smaller violent conflicts with police followed the next two nights.
In 1970, following the police raid that resulted in the death of Black Panther Fred Hampton, the group issued a "Declaration of a state of War" against the United States government, using for the first time its new name, the "Weather Underground Organization" (WUO), adopting fake identities, and pursuing covert activities only. These initially included preparations for a bombing of a US military noncommissioned officers' dance at Fort Dix in what Brian Flanagan said had been intended to be "the most horrific hit that the United States government had ever suffered on its territory" [http://www.democracynow.org/article.pl?sid=03/08/21/1441247], but three WU members died in an accidental explosion in a Greenwich Village safe house while preparing the bomb intended for that action. An accident of history was that this was the former residence of Merrill Lynch brokerage firm founder Charles Merrill and his son, the poet James Merrill. The younger Merrill subsequently recorded the event in his poem 18 West 11th Street, the title being the address of the house. An FBI report on the incident later claimed that the group had posessed sufficient amounts of explosive to "level ... both sides of the street" [http://www.evbvd.com/newsnotes/911/020510.html].
After the Greenwich Village incident, the group released a number of manifestos and declarations while carrying on a series of bombings, which from then on were both successful and free of any human casualties. The bombing actions attacked the U.S. Capitol, The Pentagon, police and prison buildings, and the rebuilt Haymarket statue again, among other targets. To avoid any loss of life as a result of these bombings, a WU member would issue warnings to evacuate the building ahead of time via phone.
The group also took a $25,000 payment from a psychedelics distribution organization called The Brotherhood of Eternal Love to break LSD advocate Timothy Leary out of prison, transporting him to Algeria. When Leary was eventually captured by the FBI, he offered to serve as an informant to capture the Weather Underground members to reduce his prison sentence. The Weather Underground members, though, remained largely successful at avoiding police and intelligence agencies. Finally, most turned themselves in at the end of the 1970s, once it was clear the revolution they had all been working towards had failed to materialize.
After the group began dissolving in 1977, many members moved on to other armed revolutionary groups and were subsequently arrested and held for long periods. Very few served prison sentences for their time in the Weather Underground; the evidence gathered against them by the FBI's COINTELPRO program was deemed illegally obtained and inadmissible in court. Jennifer Dohrn, Bernardine Dohrn's sister, once said that according to documents released under the Freedom of Information Act, the FBI planned at one point to kidnap her son when she gave birth.
Known members of the Weather Underground include Kathy Boudin, Mark Rudd, Terry Robbins, Ted Gold, Naomi Jaffe, Cathy Wilkerson, Jeff Jones, David Gilbert, Susan Stern, Bob Tomashevsky, Sam Karp, Russ Neufeld, Joe Kelly and the still-married couple Bernardine Dohrn and Bill Ayers.
Many former Weathermen have re-integrated into society without repudiating their original intent. Bill Ayers is now a Distinguished Professor of Education at the University of Illinois, and said in a September 11, 2001 New York Times profile: "I don't regret setting bombs [against non-human targets]. I believe we didn't do enough." Dohrn and Boudin also still hold to their original beliefs. Other members, like Brian Flanagan, have expressed regret. Still others, such as Mark Rudd, believe the group's original motivation, particularly its position regarding U.S. imperialism, was justified, but its resultant actions were clearly wrong.
The WU insisted that Emile de Antonio shoot the documentary Underground in 1976. However, a much more extensive, widespread, and critically-acclaimed documentary emerged in 2002 with the Oscar-nominated The Weather Underground by filmmakers Bill Siegel and Sam Green.
Chronology of events
June, 1969 – The “Action Faction” of the SDS releases a detailed statement of their political ideology in the official SDS newspaper “New Left Notes.” This essay concluded with the quotation “You Don’t Need A Weatherman To Know Which Way The Wind Blows” which gave rise to its adherents being called “Weathermen.”
18 June-22, 1969 – The SDS National Convention, held in Chicago, Illinois, sees the organization collapse as a student group and the WUO seizing control of the SDS National Office. Henceforth any activity run from the SDS National Office is WUO controlled.
July, 1969 – Bernardine Dohrn, Eleanor Raskin, Dianne Donghi, Peter Clapp, David Millstone and Diana Oughton, all representing the WUO, travel to Cuba where they meet with representatives of the North Vietnamese and Cuban governments.
August 1969 – WUO member Linda Sue Evans travels to North Vietnam. WUO activists meet in Cleveland, Ohio, for the purpose of making final plans for their “National Action” or “Days of Rage” protests scheduled to be held in Chicago in October, 1969.
4 September 1969 – WUO women members from various parts of the country converge on South Hills High School in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, where they run through the school shouting anti-war slogans and distributing literature promoting the “National Action.” The term “Pittsburgh 26” refers to the 26 women arrested in connection with this incident.
24 September 1969 – A group of WUO members become involved in a confrontation with Chicago Police when they refuse to clear a street during a demonstration supporting the “National Action”, and protesting the commencement of an Anti-riot Act trial against eight individuals charged with initiating the riots in connection with the 1968 Democratic National Convention.
7 October 1969 – The Haymarket Police Statue was bombed in Chicago, Illinois apparently as a “kickoff” for the WUO “Days of Rage” riots which took place in the city during October 8-11, 1969. No suspects have been developed in this matter. The WUO claimed credit for the bombing in their book, “Prairie Fire”.
8 October-11, 1969 – The “Days of Rage” riots occur in Chicago in which 287 WUO members from throughout the country were arrested and a large amount of property damage was done. Some of the current underground WUO members became fugitives when they failed to appear for trial in connection with their arrests during these four days.
November-December, 1969 – The First contingent of the Venceremos Brigade (VB) departs for Cuba to harvest sugar cane. A small number of WUO members participate in this trip.
6 December 1969 – Several Chicago Police cars parked in a Precinct parking lot at 3600 North Halsted Street, Chicago, were bombed. The WUO stated in their book "Prairie Fire" that they had perpetrated the explosion to protest the shooting deaths of the Illinois Black Panther Party leaders Fred Hampton and Mark Clark on 4 December 1969, by police officers.
27 December-31, 1969 – The WUO holds a “War Council” meeting in Flint, Michigan, where they finalize their plans to submerge into an underground status from which they plan to commit strategic acts of sabotage against the government.
February, 1970 – The WUO closes the SDS National Office in Chicago, concluding the major campus-based organization of the 1960s. The first contingent of the VB returns from Cuba and the second contingent departs. By mid-February the bulk of the leading WUO members submerge into an underground status.
13 February 1970 - Several Police vehicles of the Berkeley, California, Police Department are bombed in the police parking lot.
16 February 1970 – A bomb is detonated at the Golden Gate Park branch of the San Francisco Police Department, killing one officer and injuring a number of other policemen. No organization claims credit for either bombing.
March, 1970 – Several underground WUO members become federal fugitives when they unlawfully flee to avoid prosecution; warrants are issued in connection with their failure to appear for trial in Chicago.
6 March 1970 – Thirty-four sticks of dynamite are discovered in the 13th Police District of the Detroit, Michigan police bombing. During Feburary and early March, 1970, members of the WUO led by Bill Ayers are reported to be in Detroit during that period for the purpose of bombing a police facility.
6 March 1970 – Another group blows themselves up when their “bomb factory” located in New York’s Greenwich Village accidentally explodes. WUO members Theodore Gold, Diana Oughton, and Terry Robbins die in this accident. The Bomb was intended to be planted at a Non-commissioned officer's dance at Fort Dix, New Jersey. The bomb was packed with nails to inflict maximum casualties upon detonation.
30 March 1970 – Chicago Police discover a WUO “bomb factory” on Chicago’s north side. A subsequent discovery of a WUO “weapons cache” in a south side chicago apartment several days later ends WUO activity in the city.
April, 1970 – WUO members Linda Sue Evans and Dianne Donghi are arrested in New York by the FBI.
2 April 1970 – A federal grand jury in Chicago returns a number of incidents charging WUO members with violation of federal anti-riot laws. Also, a number of additional federal warrants charging unlawful flight to avoid prosecution are returned in Chicago based on the failure of WUO members to appear for trial in local cases. (The Antiriot-Law charges were later dropped in January, 1974.)
10 May 1970 – The National Guard Association building in Washington, D.C. was bombed to protest the National Guard killings of four students at Kent State in Ohio.
21 May 1970 – The WUO under Bernardine Dohrn’s name releases its “Declaration of a State of War” communique.
6 June 1970 – The WUO sent a letter claiming credit for bombing of the San Francisco Hall of Justice, however, no explosion took place. Months later, however, workmen in this building located an unexploded device which had apparently been dormant for some time.
9 June 1970 - The New York City Police Headquarters is bombed in response to what the Weathermen call "police repression."
27 July 1970 - The Presidio Army Base in San Francisco is bombed to mark the 11th anniversary of the Cuban Revolution. [NYT, 7/27/70]
July 23, 1970 – A federal grand jury in Detroit, Michigan, returns indictments against a number of underground WUO members and former WUO members charging violations of various explosives and firearms laws. (These indictments were later dropped in October, 1973.)
12 September 1970 – The WUO helps Dr. Timothy Leary, LSD user break out and escape from the California Men’s Colony Prison.
8 October 1970 - Bombing of Marin County Courthouse in retaliation for the killing of Jonathan Jackson, William Christmas, and James McClain. [NYT, 8/10/70]
10 October 1970 - The Queens Courthouse is bombed to express support for the New York prison riots. [NYT, 10/10/70]
14 October 1970 - The Harvard Center for International Affairs is bombed to protest the war in Vietnam. [NYT, 10/14/70]
December, 1970 – Fugitive WUO member Caroline Tanker, who fled the country for Cuba, is arrested by the FBI in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Fugitive WUO member Judith Alice Clark is arrested by the FBI in New York.
1 March, 1971 - The US Capitol is bombed to protest the invasion of Laos. Nixon denounces the bombing as a "shocking act of violence that will outrage all Americans." [NYT, 3/1/71]
April, 1971 – FBI agents discover an abandoned WUO “bomb factory” in San Francisco, California.
29 August, 1971 - Bombing of the Office of California Prisons allegedly in retaliation for the killing of George Jackson. [LAT, 8/29/71]
17 September 1971 - The New York Department of Corrections in Albany New York is bombed to protest the killing of 29 inmates at Attica State Penitentiary. [NYT, 9/18/70]
15 October 1971 - The bombing of William Bundy’s office in the MIT research center. [NYT, 10/16/71]
19 May, 1972 - Bombing of The Pentagon in retaliation for the new U.S. bombing raid in Hanoi. [NYT, 5/19/72]
18 May, 1973 - The bombing of the 103rd Police Precinct in New York in response to the killing of 10-year-old black youth Clifford Glover by police.
19 September 1973 – WUO member Howard Norton Machtinger is arrested by the FBI in New York. Released on bond, Machtinger again submerges into the underground.
28 September 1973 - The ITT headquarters in New York and Rome, Italy are bombed in response to ITT's alleged role in the Chilean coup earlier that month. [NYT, 9/28/73]
6 March, 1974 - Bombing of the Dept. of Health, Education and Welfare offices in San Francisco to protest alleged sterilization of poor women. In the accompanying communiqué, the Women’s Brigade argues for “the need for women to take control of daycare, healthcare, birth control and other aspects of women’s daily lives.”
31 May 1974 - The Office of the California Attorney General is bombed in response to the killing of 6 members of the Symbionese Liberation Army.
17 June 1974 - Gulf Oil's Pittsburgh headquarters is bombed to protest its actions in Angola, Vietnam, and elsewhere.
July, 1974 – The WUO releases its book “Prairie Fire” in which they indicate the need for a unified Communist Party. They encourage the creation of study groups to discuss their ideology, but continue to stress the need for violent acts. The book also admits WUO responsibility of several actions from previous years. The Prairie Fire Organizing Committee (PFOC) arises from the teachings in this book and is organized by many former WUO members.
11 September 1974 – Bombing of Anaconda Corporation (part of the Rockefeller Corporation) in retribution for Anaconda’s alleged involvement in the Chilean coup the previous year.
28 January, 1975 - Bombing of The State Department in response to escalation in Vietnam.
March, 1975 – The WUO releases its first edition of a new magazine entitled “Osawatomie”.
16 June 1975 - They bomb a Banco de Ponce (a Puerto Rican bank) in New York in solidarity with striking Puerto Rican cement workers.
11 July-13, 1975 – The PFOC holds its first national convention during which time they go through the formality of creating a new organization.
September, 1975 – Bombing of the Kennecott Corporation in retribution for Kennecott's alleged involvement in the Chilean coup two years prior[http://www.spunk.org/texts/misc/sp000209.txt].
See also
- Angry Brigade
- Movement 2 June
- Red Army Faction
- Red Brigades
- Symbionese Liberation Army
External links
- [http://www.lib.berkeley.edu/MRC/pacificaviet/ Vietnam era political protest site (UC Berkeley)] - contains online audiorecordings, texts, and other media related to the Weather Underground
- The Weather Underground, a 2002 documentary directed and produced by Sam Green, Bill Siegel and Carrie Lozano
- [http://www.theweatherunderground.com/ Official site]
- [http://www.pbs.org/independentlens/weatherunderground/ PBS Independent Lens site]
- [http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0343168/ IMDB entry]
- [http://foia.fbi.gov/foiaindex/weather.htm FBI files: Weather Underground Organization (Weatherman)]. 420 pages. Retrieved June 3, 2005.
- [http://www.findarticles.com/g1epc/tov/2419101303/p1/article.jhtml The Weathermen]. Entry in the St. James Encyclopedia of Popular Culture.
- [http://www.democracynow.org/article.pl?sid=05/06/02/1445253 Jennifer Dohrn: I Was The Target Of Illegal FBI Break-Ins Ordered by Mark Felt aka "Deep Throat"]. Guest: Jennifer Dohrn. Interviewers: Juan Gonzalez and Amy Goodman. Segment available in [http://www.democracynow.org/article.pl?sid=05/06/02/1445253 transcript] and via [http://play.rbn.com/?url=demnow/demnow/demand/2005/june/audio/dn20050602.ra&proto=rtsp&start=29:32 streaming real audio], [http://play.rbn.com/?url=demnow/demnow/demand/2005/june/video/dnB20050602a.rm&proto=rtsp&start=29:32 128k streaming real video] or [http://www.archive.org/download/dn2005-0602/dn2005-0602-1_64kb.mp3 MP3 download]. 29:32 minutes. Thursday, 2 June 2005. Retrieved 2 June 2005.
- [http://www.democracynow.org/article.pl?sid=04/12/03/1454204&mode=thread&tid=25 Growing Up in the Weather Underground: A Father and Son Tell Their Story]. Guests: Thai Jones and Jeff Jones. Interviewers: Juan Gonzalez and Amy Goodman. Democracy Now!. Segment available in [http://www.democracynow.org/article.pl?sid=04/12/03/1454204&mode=thread&tid=25#transcript transcript] and via [http://play.rbn.com/?url=demnow/demnow/demand/2004/dec/audio/dn20041203.ra&proto=rtsp&start=42:02.00 streaming real audio], [http://play.rbn.com/?url=demnow/demnow/demand/2004/dec/video/dnB20041203a.rm&proto=rtsp&start=42:02.00 128k streaming Real Video] or [http://www.archive.org/download/dn2004-1203/dn2004-1203-1_64kb.mp3 MP3 download]. 17:01 minutes. Friday, 3 December 2004. Retrieved 20 May 2005.
- [http://www.democracynow.org/article.pl?sid=03/06/05/1821243&mode=thread&tid=42 The Weather Underground: A Look Back at the Antiwar Activists Who Met Violence with Violence]. Guests: Mark Rudd, former member of the Weather Underground, Sam Green, documentary filmmaker. Interviewers: Juan Gonzalez and Amy Goodman. Democracy Now!. Segment available via [http://play.rbn.com/?url=demnow/demnow/demand/old/dn20030605.ra&start=17:55.2 streaming real audio], or [http://stream.paranode.com/democracynow//dn2003-0605-1.m3u MP3 download]. 1 hour 40 minutes. Thursday, 5 June 2003. Retrieved 20 May 2005.
- [http://www.sunrisedancer.com/radicalreader/library/waythewindblew/ Fulltext of book Where The Wind Blew], by Ron Jacobs (1997) about the Weather Underground Organization.
- [http://www.sunrisedancer.com/radicalreader/library/weatherman/ Fulltext of book Weatherman], ed. by Harold Jacobs, a collection of documents by and about SDS/Weatherman. This book was published in 1970 and deals only with WUO's early period. Out of print.
Further reading
Osawatomie. Water Buffalo Print Collective. [Journal of the Weather Underground Organization]. Seattle. 1975. [http://actiontendency.net/NLN/sds_wuo/osawatomie_no_2/osawatomie.htmlOsawatomie Issue #2] available on line. Retrieved July 27, 2005.
Category:Left-wing militant groups
Category:Underground
Weather forecastingWeatherman redirects here. If you're looking for the Weather Underground Organization, see Weatherman (organization).
Weather forecasting is the science (or as some argue, the art) of predicting the state of the atmosphere for a future time and location. The history of weather forecasting goes back millennia, however the techniques used have changed significantly since then. Today, weather forecasts are made by collecting as much data as possible about the current state of the atmosphere (particularly the temperature, humidity and wind) and using understanding of atmospheric processes (through meteorology) to determine how the atmosphere evolves in the future. However, the chaotic nature of the atmosphere and incomplete understanding of the processes mean that forecasts become less accurate as the range of the forecast increases.
= History of weather forecasting =
Many peoples livelihoods and indeed lives are strongly influenced by the weather. In the past, this was probably more true than it is today. For millennia people have tried to predict what the weather would be like a day or a season in advance. In 650 BC, the Babylonians predicted the weather from cloud patterns. In about 340 BC, Aristotle described weather patterns in Meteorologica. The Chinese were predicting weather at least as far back as 300 BC.
Ancient methods of weather forecasting usually relied on experience to spot patterns of events. For example, they noticed that if the sunset gave a particularly red sky, then the following day brought fair weather. This experience accumulated over the generations to produce weather lore. However, not all of these predictions prove reliable and many of them have since been found not to stand up to rigorous statistical testing.
It was not until the invention of the telegraph in 1837 that the modern age of weather forecasting began. Before this time, it had not been possible to transport information about the current state of the weather any faster than a steam train, however the telegraph allowed reports of weather conditions from a wide area to be received almost instantaneously. This allowed forecasts to be made by knowing what the weather conditions were like further upwind.
The two men most credited with the birth of forecasting as a science were Francis Beaufort (remembered chiefly for the Beaufort scale) and his protegé Robert Fitzroy (developer of the Fitzroy Barometer). Both were influential men in British Naval and Governmental circles, and though ridiculed in the press at the time, their work gained scientific credence, was accepted by the British Navy and formed the basis for all of today's weather forecasting knowledge.
Great progress was made in the science of meteorology during the 20th century which allowed understanding of atmospheric processes. The idea of numerical weather prediction (NWP) was presented by Lewis Fry Richardson in 1922. However, computers fast enough to complete the vast number of calculations required to produce a forecast before the event had occurred did not exist at that time. It was not until, 1970’s that NWP became operational in forecasting agencies across the world.
Lewis Fry Richardson presenting a weather report.]]
=Modern day weather forecasting system=
A modern day weather forecasting system consists of five components:
- Data collection
- Data assimilation
- Numerical weather prediction
- Model output post-processing
- Forecast presentation to end-user
Data collection
Traditional observations made at the surface of atmospheric pressure, temperature, wind speed, wind direction, humidity, precipitation are collected routinely from trained observers, automatic weather stations or buoys. The World Meteorological Organization acts to standardize the instrumentation, observing practices and timing of these observations worldwide. Stations either report hourly in METAR reports, or every six hours in SYNOP reports.
Additionally, information about the temperature, humidity and wind above the surface are found by launching a radiosonde (weather balloon). Data up to the tropopause are usually transmitted to the surface.
Increasingly, data from weather satellites is being used due to their (almost) global coverage. Although their visible light images are very useful for forecasters to see development of clouds, little of this information can be used by numerical weather prediction models. The infra-red (IR) data however can be used as it gives information on the temperature at the surface and cloud tops. Individual clouds can also be tracked from one time to the next to provide information on wind direction and strength at the clouds steering level. Polar orbiting satellites provide soundings of temperature and moisture throughout the depth of the atmosphere. Compared with similar data from radiosondes, the satellite data has the advantage that coverage is global, however the accuracy and resolution is not as good.
Meteorological radar provide information on precipitation location and intensity. Additionally, if doppler radar are used then wind speed and direction can be determined.
Data assimilation
During the data assimilation process, information gained from the observations is used in conjunction with a numerical model's most recent forecast for the time that observations were made (since this contains information from previous observations) to produce the meteorological analysis. This is the best estimate of the current state of the atmosphere. It is a three dimensional representation of the distribution of temperature, moisture and wind.
Numerical weather prediction models are computer simulations of the atmosphere. They take the analysis as the starting point and evolve the state of the atmosphere forward in time using understanding of physics and fluid dynamics. The complicated equations which govern how the state of a fluid changes with time require supercomputers to solve them. The output from the model provides the basis of the weather forecast.
Model output post processing
The raw output is often modified before being presented as the forecast. This can be in the form of statistical techniques to remove known biases in the model, or of adjustment to take into account consensus among other numerical weather forecasts.
In the past, the human forecaster used to be responsible for generating the entire weather forecast from the observations. However today, for forecasts beyond 24hrs human input is generally confined to post-processing of model data to add value to the forecast. Humans are required to interpret the model data into weather forecasts that are understandable to the end user. Additionally, humans can use knowledge of local effects which may be too small in size to be resolved by the model to add information to the forecast. However, the increasing accuracy of forecast models continues to decrease the need for post-processing and human input. Examples of weather model data can be found on Vigilant Weather's Model Pulse.
Presentation of weather forecasts
The final stage in the forecasting process is perhaps the most important. Knowledge of what the end user needs from a weather forecast must be taken into account to present the information in a useful and understandable way.
Public information
One of the main end users of a forecast is the general public. Thunderstorms can cause strong winds, dangerous lightning strikes leading to power outages, and widespread hail damage. Heavy snow or rain can bring transportation and commerce to a stand-still, as well as cause flooding in low-lying areas. Excessive heat or cold waves can kill or sicken those without adequate utilities. The National Weather Service provides forecasts and watches/warnings/advisories for all areas of the United States to protect life and property and maintain commercial interests. Traditionally, television and radio weather presenters have been the main method of informing the public, however increasingly the internet is being used due to the vast amount of information that can be found.
Air traffic
The aviation industry is especially sensitive to the weather. Fog and/or exceptionally low ceilings can prevent many aircraft landing and taking off. Similarly, turbulence and icing can be hazards whilst in flight. Thunderstorms are a problem for all aircraft, due to severe turbulence and icing, as well as large hail, strong winds, and lightning, all of which can cause fatal damage to an aircraft in flight. On a day to day basis airliners are routed to take advantage of the jet stream tailwind to improve fuel efficiency. Air crews are briefed prior to take off on the conditions to expect en route and at their destination.
Utility companies
Electricity companies rely on weather forecasts to anticipate demand which can be strongly affected by the weather. In winter, severe cold weather can cause a surge in demand as people turn up their heating. Similarly, in summer a surge in demand can be linked with the increased use of air conditioning systems in hot weather.
Private sector
Increasingly, private companies pay for weather forecasts tailored to their needs so that they can increase their profits. For example, supermarket chains may change the stocks on their shelves in anticipation of different consumer spending habits in different weather conditions.
=Ensemble forecasting=
Although a forecast model will predict realistic looking weather features evolving realistically into the distant future, the errors in a forecast will inevitably grow with time due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. The detail that can be given in a forecast therefore decreases with time as these errors increase. There becomes a point when the errors are so large that the forecast is completely wrong and the forecasted atmospheric state has no correlation with the actual state of the atmosphere.
However, looking at a single forecast gives no indication of how likely that forecast is to be correct. Ensemble forecasting uses lots of forecasts produced to reflect the uncertainty in the initial state of the atmosphere (due to errors in the observations and insufficient sampling). The uncertainty in the forecast can then be assessed by the range of different forecasts produced. They have been shown to be better at detecting the possibility of extreme events at long range.
Ensemble forecasts are increasingly being used for operational weather forecasting (for example at ECMWF, NCEP, and the Canadian forecasting center).
=Nowcasting=
The forecasting of the weather in the 0-6 hour timeframe is often referred to as nowcasting. It is in this range that the human forecaster still has an advantage over computer NWP models. In this time range it is possible to forecast smaller features such as individual shower clouds with reasonable accuracy, however these are often too small to be resolved by a computer model. A human given the latest radar, satellite and observational data will be able to make a better analysis of the small scale features present and so will be able to make a more accurate forecast for the following few hours.
Below is a sample nowcast, issued by the National Weather Service in Mount Holly, New Jersey:
000
FPUS71 KPHI 240805
NOWPHI
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
405 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2005
DEZ002>004-MDZ015-019-020-NJZ013-014-020-022>027-241200-
ATLANTIC NJ-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-CAPE MAY NJ-CAROLINE MD-
COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-COASTAL OCEAN NJ-DELAWARE BEACHES DE-
EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-INLAND SUSSEX DE-KENT DE-OCEAN NJ-
QUEEN ANNE'S MD-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-TALBOT MD-
WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATLANTIC CITY AND DOVER
405 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2005
.NOW...
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND SHORE EARLY THIS MORNING, AS
WELL AS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COAST. THE PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY REDUCE
THE VISIBILITY TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. IF YOU WILL BE
DRIVING THIS MORNING, BE SURE TO LEAVE PLENTY OF ROOM BETWEEN YOUR
VEHICLE AND THE ONE AHEAD OF YOU. YOUR VISIBILITY COULD DROP QUICKLY
IF YOU DRIVE INTO A DENSE PATCH OF FOG. WATCH ESPECIALLY FOR
PEDESTRIANS. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE.
$$
=Grammar=
Weather forecasting uses an esoteric grammatic style, employing heavy use of ellipses (e.g.: light rain...strengthening through the night). It takes the place of a comma and is derived from legacy computer systems (some of which are still active), which did not include a comma in their character sets.
=Websites providing forecasts=
Meteorological agencies
- [http://www.noaa.gov/wx.html NOAA weather page]
- :[http://www.goes.noaa.gov/ NOAA satellite images]
- :[http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ National Weather Service]
- [http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/ The Met Office of the UK]
- :[http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather BBC Weather Centre]
- [http://www.ecmwf.int/ European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF)]
- [http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/canada_e.html Environment Canada Weather Office]
- [http://www.bom.gov.au Australian Bureau of Meteorology]
- [http://www.metservice.com New Zealand MetService]
- [http://www.meteoswiss.ch/en/index.shtml Meteo Suisse (Swiss Weather Agency, in English]
- Afghanistan Meteorological Authority
- [http://www.fmi.fi Finnish Meteorological Institute]
- [http://www.inm.es/ Instituto Nacional de Meteorología. INM]
Commercial organisations
- [http://www.weather.com/ Weather Channel]
- [http://www.weather.co.uk/ Weather Channel UK]
- [http://www.weather.com.au/ Australian Weather]
- [http://www.wunderground.com/ Weather Underground]
=See also=
- Meteorology
- Weather
- Weather control
- TV Nova
- National Collegiate Weather Forecasting Competition
- AccuWeather
Category:Meteorology
Category:Weather
Category:Broadcasting
ja:天気予報
ColloquiallyA colloquialism is an expression not used in formal speech or writing. Colloquialisms can include words (such as "gonna" or "grouty"), phrases (such as "ain't nothin'" and "dead as a doornail"), or sometimes even an entire aphorism ("There's more than one way to skin a cat"). Dictionaries often display colloquial words and phrases with the abbreviation colloq. Colloquialisms are often used primarily within a limited geographical area.
In some areas, overuse of colloquialisms by native speakers is regarded as a sign of substandard ability with the language. However, in the mouth of a non-native speaker, they are sometimes taken as signaling unusual facility with the language as they may be more difficult for non-native speakers to understand.
A colloquialism can sometimes make its way into otherwise formal speech, as a sign that the speaker is comfortable with his or her audience, in contrast to slang, which if used in formal speech is more likely done so consciously for humorous effect.
Words that have a formal meaning may also have a colloquial meaning that, while technically incorrect, is recognizeable due to common usage. Examples include "immaculate conception" when used to refer to virgin birth, and "addiction" in cases where the individual is physiologically dependent, but not actually addicted to the substance in question.
See also
- Slang
- Jargon
- Idiom
- Variety (linguistics)
- Category:City Colloquials
External link
- [http://www.figarospeech.com It Figures-Figures of Speech]
Category:Language varieties and styles
Category:Figures of speech
Radical LeftRadical Left has diverse meanings.
- Sometimes it is used as an umbrella term to describe those on the political left who adhere explicitly and openly to communism, socialism and anarchism. In this meaning it generally does not include Democrats, Social Democrats, liberals, trade unionists, or those working in electoral politics, since the "radical" qualifier tends in this case to denote nothing less than a revolutionary fervor.
- Historically "radical (left)" had another meaning and was used by progressive liberals to distance themselves from classical liberals. This explains why some parties of the center-left still have "radical" in their names.
Where political parties are concerned, the term 'Radical Left' might be short for:
- Det Radikale Venstre - a social-liberal party in Denmark; the literal translation of "Det Radikale Venstre" into English is "Radical Left".
- Left Radical Party - a social-liberal party in France.
Communist
:This article is about communism as a form of society and as a political movement. For issues regarding Communist organizations, see the Communist party article. For issues regarding Communist Party-run states, see Communist state.
Communism refers to a theoretical system of social organization and a political movement based on common ownership of the means of production. As a political movement, communism seeks to establish a classless society. A major force in world politics since the early 20th century, modern communism is generally associated with The Communist Manifesto of Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels, according to which the capitalist profit-based system of private ownership is replaced by a communist society in which the means of production are communally owned, such as through a gift economy. Often this process is said initiated by the revolutionary overthrow of the bourgeoisie (see Marxism), passes through a transitional period marked by the preparatory stage of socialism (see Leninism). Pure communism has never been implemented, it remains theoretical: communism is, in Marxist theory, the end-state, or the result of state-socialism. The word is now mainly understood to refer to the political, economic, and social theory of Marxist thinkers, or life under conditions of Communist party rule.
In the late 19th century, Marxist theories motivated socialist parties across Europe, although their policies later developed along the lines of "reforming" capitalism, rather than overthrowing it. The exception was the Russian Social Democratic Workers' Party. One branch of this party, commonly known as the Bolsheviks and headed by Vladimir Lenin, succeeded in taking control of the country after the toppling of the Provisional Government in the Russian Revolution of 1917. In 1918, this party changed its name to the Communist Party; thus establishing the contemporary distinction between communism and socialism.
After the success of the October Revolution in Russia, many socialist parties in other countries became communist parties, owing allegiance of varying degrees to the Communist Party of the Soviet Union (see Communist International). After World War II, regimes calling themselves communist took power in Eastern Europe. In 1949 the Communists in China, led by Mao Zedong, came to power and established the People's Republic of China. Among the other countries in the Third World that adopted a Communist form of government at some point were Cuba, North Korea, Vietnam, Laos, Angola, and Mozambique. By the early 1980s, almost one-third of the world's population lived under Communist states.
Communism never became a popular ideology in the United States, either before or after the establishment of the Communist Party USA in 1919. Since the early 1970s, the term "Eurocommunism" was used to refer to the policies of Communist Parties in Western Europe, which sought to break with the tradition of uncritical and unconditional support of the Soviet Union. Such parties were politically active and electorally significant in France and Italy. With the collapse of the Communist governments in Eastern Europe from the late 1980s and the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991, Communism's influence has decreased dramatically in Europe, but around a quarter of the world's population still lives under Communist Party rule.
Marxism
Like other socialists, Marx and Engels sought an end to capitalism and the exploitation of workers. But whereas earlier socialists often favored longer-term social reform, Marx and Engels believed that popular revolution was all but inevitable, and the only path to socialism.
According to the Marxist argument for communism, the main characteristic of human life in class society is alienation; and communism is desirable because it entails the full realization of human freedom. Marx here follows G.W.F. Hegel in conceiving freedom not merely as an absence of constraints but as action having moral content. Not only does communism allow people to do what they want but it puts humans in such conditions and such relations with one another that they would not wish to have need for exploitation. Whereas for Hegel, the unfolding of this ethnical life in history is mainly driven by the realm of ideas, for Marx, communism emerged from material, especially the development of the means of production.
Marxism holds that a process of class conflict and revolutionary struggle will result in victory for the proletariat and the establishment of a communist society in which private ownership is abolished over time and the means of production and subsistence belong to the community. Marx himself wrote little about life under communism, giving only the most general indication as to what constituted a communist society. It is clear that it entails abundance in which there is little limit to the projects that humans may undertake. In the popular slogan that was adopted by the communist movement, communism was a world in which 'each gave according to his abilities, and received according to his needs.' The German Ideology (1845) was one of Marx's few writings to elaborate on the communist future:
:In communist society, where nobody has one exclusive sphere of activity but each can become accomplished in any branch he wishes, society regulates the general production and thus makes it possible for me to do one thing today and another tomorrow, to hunt in the morning, fish in the afternoon, rear cattle in the evening, criticise after dinner, just as I have a mind, without ever becoming hunter, fisherman, herdsman or critic. [http://www.marxists.org/archive/marx/works/1845/german-ideology/ch01a.htm]
Marx's lasting vision was to add this vision to a positive scientific theory of how society was moving in a law-governed way toward communism, and, with some tension, a political theory that explained why revolutionary activity was required to bring it about.
Some of Marx's contemporaries, such as Mikhail Bakunin, espoused similar ideas, but differed in their views of how to reach to a harmonic society with no classes. To this day there has been a split in the workers movement between Marxists (communists) and anarchists. The anarchists are against, and wish to abolish, every state organisation. Among them, anarchist-communists such as Peter Kropotkin believed in an immediate transition to one society with no classes, while anarcho-syndicalists believe that labor unions, as opposed to Communist parties, are the organizations that can help usher this society.
The growth of modern Communism
Soviet Marxism
In Russia, the modern world's first effort to build socialism or communism on a large scale, following the 1917 October Revolution, led by Lenin's Bolsheviks, raised significant theoretical and practical debates on communism among Marxists themselves. Marx's theory had presumed that revolutions would occur where capitalist development was the most advanced and where a large working class was already in place. Russia, however, was the poorest country in Europe, with an enormous, illiterate peasantry and little industry. Under these circumstances, it was necessary for the communists, according to Marxian theory, to create a working class itself. Nevertheless, some socialists believed that a Russian revolution could be the precursor of workers' revolutions in the west.
For this reason, the socialist Mensheviks had opposed Lenin's communist Bolsheviks in their demand for socialist revolution before capitalism had been established. In seizing power, the Bolsheviks found themselves without a program beyond their pragmatic and politically successful slogans "peace, bread, and land," which had tapped the massive public desire for an end to Russian involvement in the First World War and the peasants' demand for land reform.
The usage of the terms "communism" and "socialism" shifted after 1917, when the Bolsheviks changed their name to the Communist Party and installed a single-party regime devoted to the implementation of socialist policies. The revolutionary Bolsheviks broke completely with the non-revolutionary social democratic movement, withdrew from the Second International, and formed the Third International, or Comintern, in 1919. Henceforth, the term "Communism" was applied to the objective of the parties founded under the umbrella of the Comintern. Their program called for the uniting of workers of the world for revolution, which would be followed by the establishment of a dictatorship of the proletariat as well as the development of a socialist economy. Ultimately, their program held, there would develop a harmonious classless society, with the withering away of the state. In the early 1920s, the Soviet Communists formed the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, or Soviet Union, from the former Russian Empire.
Following Lenin's democratic centralism, the Communist parties were organized on a hierarchical basis, with active cells of members as the broad base; they were made up only of elite cadres approved by higher members of the party as being reliable and completely subject to party discipline.
In 1918-1920, in the middle of the Russian Civil War, the new regime nationalized all productive property. When mutiny and peasant unrest resulted, Lenin declared the New Economic Policy (NEP). However, Joseph Stalin's personal fight for leadership spelled the end of the NEP, and he used his control over personnel to abandon the program.
The Soviet Union and other countries ruled by Communist Parties are often described as 'Communist states' with 'state socialist' economic bases. This usage indicates that they proclaim that they have realized part of the socialist program by abolishing private control of the means of production and establishing state control over the economy; however, they do not declare themselves truly communist, as they have not established communal ownership.
Stalinism
The Stalinist version of socialism, with some important modifications, shaped the Soviet Union and influenced Communist Parties worldwide. It was heralded as a possibility of building communism via a massive program of industrialization and collectivization. The rapid development of industry, and above all the victory of the Soviet Union in the Second World War, maintained that vision throughout the world, even around a decade following Stalin's death, when the party adopted a program in which it promised the establishment of communism within thirty years.
However, under Stalin's leadership, evidence emerged that dented faith in the possibility of achieving communism within the framework of the Soviet model. Stalin had created in the Soviet Union a repressive state that dominated every aspect of life. After Stalin's death, the Soviet Union's new leader, Nikita Khrushchev admitted the enormity of the repression that took place under Stalin. Later, growth declined, and rent-seeking and corruption by state officials increased, which dented the legitimacy of the Soviet system.
Despite the activity of the Comintern, the Soviet Communist Party adopted the Stalinist theory of "socialism in one country" and claimed that, due to the "aggravation of class struggle under socialism," it was possible, even necessary, to build socialism in one country alone. This departure from Marxist internationalism was challenged by Leon Trotsky, whose theory of "permanent revolution" stressed the necessity of world revolution.
Trotskyism
Trotsky and his supporters organized into the "Left Opposition," and their platform became known as Trotskyism. But Stalin eventually succeeded in gaining full control of the Soviet regime, and their attempts to remove Stalin from power resulted in Trotsky's exile from the Soviet Union in 1929. After Trotsky's exile, world communism fractured in two distinct branches: Stalinism and Trotskyism. Trotsky later founded the Fourth International, a Trotskyist rival to the Comintern, in 1938.
Though some follow Trotskyism today, Trotsky's theories were never reaccepted in Communist circles in the Soviet bloc, even after Stalin's death; and Trotsky's interpretation of communism has not been successful in leading a political revolution that would overthrow a state. However, Trotskyist ideas have occasionally found an echo among political movements in countries experiencing social upheavals (such is the case of Alan Woods' Trotskyist Committee for a Marxist International, which has had contact with President Hugo Chávez of Venezuela), most parties are active in politically stable, developed countries (such as Great Britain, France, Spain and Germany). It is noteworthy that Trotskyists groups that contribute with pro-capitalist parties have not escaped criticism as opportunists from other Trotskyists which are loathe to do so (see Trotskyism).
Cold War years
As the Soviet Union won important allies by victory in the Second World War in Eastern Europe, communism as a movement spread to a number of new countries, and gave rise to a few different branches of its own, such as Maoism.
Communism had been vastly strengthened by the winning of many new nations into the sphere of Soviet influence and strength in Eastern Europe. Governments modeled on Soviet Communism were formed in Albania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, East Germany, Poland, Hungary and Romania. A Communist government was also created under Marshal Tito in Yugoslavia, but Tito's independent policies led to the expulsion of Yugoslavia from the Cominform, which had replaced the Comintern, and Titoism, a new branch in the world communist movement, was labeled "deviationist."
By 1950 the Chinese Communists held all of China except Taiwan, thus controlling the most populous nation in the world. Other areas where rising Communist strength provoked dissension and in some cases actual fighting include Laos, many nations of the Middle East and Africa, and, especially, Vietnam (see Vietnam War). With varying degrees of success, Communists attempted to unite with nationalist and socialist forces against Western imperialism in these poor countries.
Maoism
After the death of Stalin in 1953, the Soviet Union's new leader, Nikita Khrushchev, denounced Stalin's crimes and his cult of personality. He called for a return to the principles of Lenin, thus presaging some change in Communist methods. However, Khrushchev's reforms heightened ideological differences between China and the Soviet Union, which became increasingly apparent in the 1960s and 1970s. As the Sino-Soviet Split in the international Communist movement turned toward open hostility, Maoist China portrayed itself as a leader of the underdeveloped world against the two superpowers, the United States and the Soviet Union, with Maoism gaining recognition worldwide as a new branch of Marxism.
Collapse of the Soviet Union and Communism today
In 1985, Mikhail Gorbachev became leader of the Soviet Union and relaxed central control, in accordance with reform policies of glasnost (openness) and perestroika (restructuring). The Soviet Union did not intervene as Poland, East Germany, Czechoslovakia, Bulgaria, Romania, and Hungary all abandoned Communist rule by 1990. In 1991, the Soviet Union itself dissolved.
By the beginning of the 21st century, Communist parties hold power in China, Cuba, Laos, North Korea, and Vietnam. President Vladimir Voronin of Moldova is a member of the Communist Party of Moldova, but the country is not run under one-party leadership. However, China has reassessed many aspects of the Maoist legacy; and China, Laos, Vietnam, and, to a lesser degree, Cuba have reduced state control of the economy in order to stimulate growth. Communist parties, or their descendent parties, remain politically important in many European countries and throughout the Third World, particularly in India.
Theories within Marxism as to why communism in Eastern Europe was not achieved after socialist revolutions pointed to such elements as the pressure of external capitalist states, the relative backwardness of the societies in which the revolutions occurred, and the emergence of a bureaucratic stratum or class that arrested or diverted the transition press in its own interests. Marxist critics of the Soviet Union referred to the Soviet system, along with other Communist states, as "state capitalism," arguing that Soviet system fell far short of Marx's communist ideal. They argued that the state and party bureaucratic elite acted as a surrogate capitalist class in the heavily centralized and repressive political apparatus.
Non-Marxists, in contrast, have often applied the term to any society ruled by a Communist Party and to any party aspiring to create a society similar to such existing nation-states. In the social sciences, societies ruled by Communist Parties are distinct for their single party control and their socialist economic bases. While anticommunists applied the concept of "totalitarianism" to these societies, many social scientists identified possibilities for independent political activity within them, and stressed their continued evolution up to the point of the dissolution of the Soviet Union and its allies in Eastern Europe during the late 1980s and early 1990s.
Today, Marxist revolutionaries are active in India, Nepal, and Colombia.
"Communism" or "communism"?
According to the 1996 third edition of Fowler's Modern English Usage, communism and derived words are written with the lowercase "c" except when they refer to a political party of that name, a member of that party, or a government led by such a party, in which case the word "Communist" is written with the uppercase "C".
Criticism of communism
:Main article: Criticisms of communism.
A diverse array of writers and political activists have published anticommunist work, such as Soviet bloc dissidents Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn and Vaclav Havel; economists Friedrich Hayek, Ludwig von Mises, and Milton Friedman; and historians and social scientists Hannah Arendt, Robert Conquest, Daniel Pipes and R. J. Rummel, to name a few. Some writers such as Conquest go beyond attributing large-scale human rights abuses to Communist regimes, presenting events occurring in these countries, particularly under Stalin, as an argument against the ideology of Communism itself.
It should be noted that these are criticisms of Communist parties and states they have ruled, rather than criticisms of communism as such. It should also be noted that many Communist parties outside of the Warsaw Pact (i.e. Communist parties in Western Europe, Asia, Latin America, and Africa) differed greatly, therefore no single criticism fits all.
See also
- Communist state
- Anti-communism
- Criticisms of communism
- Post-Communism
Schools of communism
- Anarchist communism
- Council communism
- De Leonism
- Eurocommunism
- Hoxhaism
- Juche
- Left communism
- Luxembourgism
- Marxism
- Marxism-Leninism
- Maoism
- Stalinism
- Trotskyism
Organizations and people
- Communist Party
- List of Communist parties
- List of Communists
Further reading
- Fernando Claudin, The Communist Movement: From Comintern to Cominform (1975)
- Pipes, Richard, "Communism", London, (2001), ISBN 0-297-64688-5
External links
Online resources for original Marxist literature
- [http://www.marxists.org Marxists Internet Archive]
- [http://www.libcom.org/library Libertarian Communist Library]
- [http://www.marxist.net Marxist.net]
- [http://www.marxists.org/archive/marx/works/1845/theses/theses.htm?title= Theses on Feuerbach]
- [http://www.marxists.org/archive/marx/works/1847/11/prin-com.htm?title= Principles of Communism]
- [http://www.marxists.org/archive/marx/works/1848/communist-manifesto/index.htm?title= The Communist Manifesto]
- [http://www.marxists.org/archive/marx/works/1871/civil-war-france/index.htm?title= The Civil War in France]
- [http://www.marxists.org/archive/marx/works/1880/soc-utop/index.htm?title= Socialism: Utopian and Scientific]
- [http://www.marxists.org/archive/deleon/works/1896/960126.htm Reform or Revolution?]
- [http://www.marxists.org/archive/lenin/works/1901/witbd/index.htm?title= What is to be Done?]
- [http://www.marxists.org/archive/lenin/works/1904/onestep/index.htm?title= One Step Forward, Two Steps Back]
- [http://www.marxists.org/archive/lenin/works/1905/two-tact/index.htm?title= Two Tactics of Social-Democracy in the Democratic Revolution]
- [http://www.marxists.org/archive/lenin/works/1908/mec/index.htm?title= Materialism and Empirio-Criticism]
- [http://www.marxists.org/archive/lenin/works/1914/self-det/index.htm?title= The Right of Nations to Self-Determination]
- [http://www.marxists.org/archive/lenin/works/1916/imp-hsc/index.htm?title= Imperialism, The Highest Stage of Capitalism]
- [http://www.marxists.org/archive/lenin/works/1917/staterev/index.htm?title= The State and Revolution]
- [http://www.marxists.org/archive/lenin/works/1916/miliprog/index.htm?title= The Military Programme of the Proletarian Revolution]
- [http://www.marxists.org/archive/lenin/works/1917/tasks/index.htm?title= The Tasks of the Proletariat In Our Revolution]
Category:Communism
Category:Political theories
Category:Society
Category:Economic ideologies
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ko:공산주의
ms:Komunisme
ja:共産主義
simple:Communism
Guerrilla warfare
:Guerrilla War redirects here. See also Guerrilla War (arcade game).
Guerrilla (also called a partisan) is a term borrowed from Spanish ("guerra" meaning "war" and "guerrilla" meaning "little war"), and used to describe small combat groups and the members of such groups (see Etymology). Guerrilla warfare operates with small, mobile and flexible combat groups called cells, without a front line. Guerrilla warfare is one of the oldest forms of asymmetric warfare. Primary contributors to modern theories of guerrilla war include Mao Zedong, Wendell Fertig, Regis Debray, Vo Nguyen Giap, and Che Guevara. Later students of guerrilla warfare included Swiss Major Hans von Dach who wrote the now widely available Swiss Army field manual "Total Resistance". While "asymmetric warfare" is the military term for guerrilla tactics, in present times when abhorent tactics are commonly used, it is often referred to in the pejorative as "terrorism".
Etymology
The term was invented in Spain to describe the tactics used to resist the French regime instituted by Napoleon Bonaparte (one should remember, however, that the tactics themselves were known and used even centuries earlier). The Spanish word means "little war". The Spanish word for guerrilla fighter is guerrillero. The change of usage from the tactics to the person implementing them is a late 19th century mistake. In most languages the word still denotes the style of warfare. However this is changing under the influence of the English usage, where the origination of the term traces back to a conflation between the Spanish term "guerilla" and the English "gorilla" (see "Bananas" Foster).
Tactics
Guerrilla tactics are based on ambush, sabotage, and espionage, and their ultimate objective is usually to destabilize an authority through long, low-intensity confrontation. It can be quite successful against an unpopular foreign regime: a guerrilla army may increase the cost of maintaining an occupation or a colonial presence above what the foreign power may wish to bear.
However, guerrilla warfare has generally been unsuccessful against native regimes, which have nowhere to retreat to and are highly knowledgeable about their own people, society, and culture. The rare examples of successful guerrilla warfare against a native regime include the Cuban Revolution and the Chinese Civil War, as well as the Sandinista overthrow of a military dictatorship in Nicaragua. More common are the unsuccessful examples of guerrilla warfare, which include Malaysia, Bolivia, Argentina, and the Philippines. The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), fighting for an independent homeland in the north and east of Sri Lanka, achieved significant military successes against the Sri Lankan military and the government itself for twenty years. It was even able to use these tactics effectively against the IPKF forces sent by India in the mid 1980s, which was later withdrawn due to varied reasons, primarily political. The mutual attrition on both sides in the island led to a ceasefire following the September 11, 2001 attacks.
Guerrillas in wars against foreign powers do not principally direct their attacks at civilians, as they desire to obtain as much support as possible from the population as part of their tactics. Civilians are primarily attacked or assassinated as punishment for collaboration. Often such an attack will be officially sanctioned by guerrilla command or tribunal. An exception is in civil wars, where both guerrilla groups and organized armies have been known to commit atrocities against the civilian population.
Mao Zedong during the Chinese civil war, condensed guerrilla warfare into the following points for his troops;
The enemy advances, we retreat. The enemy camps, we harass. The enemy tires, we attack. The enemy retreats, we pursue.
Michael Collins of the Irish Republican Army, who orchestrated the Anglo-Irish war of 1919-1921 had a more succinct principle behind his campaign of intelligence, assassination, and propaganda: create "bloody mayhem".
Guerrillas are often characterised as terrorists by their opponents, as part of psychological warfare. Guerrillas are in danger of not being recognized as lawful combatants because they may not wear a uniform, (to mingle with the local population), or their uniform and distinctive emblems may not be recognised as such by their opponents. Article 44, sections 3 and 4 of the 1977 First Additional Protocol to the Geneva Conventions, "relating to the Protection of Victims of International Armed Conflicts", does recognise combatants who, due to the nature of the conflict, do not wear uniforms as long as they carry their weapons openly during military operations. This gives non-uniformed guerrillas lawful combatant status against countries that have ratified this convention.
Guerrilla warfare is classified into two main categories: urban guerrilla warfare and rural guerrilla warfare. In both cases, guerrillas rely on a friendly population to provide supplies and intelligence. Rural guerrillas prefer to operate in regions providing plenty of cover and concealment, especially heavily forested and mountainous areas. Urban guerrillas, rather than melting into the mountains and jungles, blend into the population and are also dependent on a support base among the people. When guerrilla fighters, particularly foreigners recruited and transported to the site of a conflict, have occupied a town and are coercing the population into cooperation or submission, they can be more properly characterized as terrorists, as they qualified as mercenaries.
Foreign support in the form of soldiers, weapons, sanctuary, or, at the very least, statements of sympathy for the guerrillas can greatly increase the chances of victory for an insurgency. However, it is not always necessary.
Maoist theory of people's war divides warfare into three phases. In the first phase, the guerrillas gain the support of the population through attacks on the machinery of government and the distribution of propaganda. In the second phase, escalating attacks are made on the government's military and vital institutions. In the third phase, conventional fighting is used to seize cities, overthrow the government, and take control of the country.
Guerrilla Tactics were summarized into the Minimanual of the Urban Guerrilla in 1969 by Carlos Marighella. This text was banned in several countries including the United States. This is probably the most comprehensive and informative book on guerrilla strategy ever published, and is available free online. Texts by Che Guevara and Mao Zedong on guerrilla warfare are also available.
John Keats wrote about an American guerrilla leader in World War 2: Colonel Wendell Fertig, who in 1942 organized a large force of guerrillas who harassed the Japanese occupation forces on the Philippine Island of Mindanao all the way up to the liberation of the Philippines in 1945. His abilities were later utilized by the United States Army, when Fertig helped found the United States Army Special Warfare School at Fort Bragg, North Carolina. Others included Col. Aaron Bank and Col. Russell Volckmann. Volckmann, in particular, commanded a guerrilla force which operated out of the Cordillera of Northern Luzon, in the Philippines from the beginning of World War II to its conclusion. He remained in radio contact with US Forces, prior to the invasion of Lingayen Gulf.
Guerrilla warfare sometimes involves surrounding nations, which are affected by a popular uprising against the neighbouring government. A case in point was the Mukti Bahini guerrillas who fought alongside the Indian Army in the 14-day Bangladesh Liberation War in 1971 against Pakistan that resulted in the creation of the state of Bangladesh.
T.E.Lawrence, best known as "Lawrence of Arabia," introduced a theory of guerrilla warfare tactics in an article he wrote for the Encyclopedia Brittanica published in 1938. In that article, he analogized guerrilla fighters to a gas. The fighters disperse in the area of operations more or less randomly. They or their cells occupy a very small intrinsic space in that area, just as gas molecules occupy a very small intrinsic space in a container. The fighters may coalesce into groups for tactical purposes, but their general state is dispersed. Such fighters cannot be "rounded up." They cannot be contained. They are extremely difficult to "defeat" because they cannot be brought to battle in significant numbers. The cost in soldiers and material to destroy a significant number of them becomes prohibitive, in all senses, that is physically, economically, morally, etc. It should be noted that Lawrence describes a non-native occupying force as the enemy (i.e. the Turks).
Examples
Examples of successful guerrilla warfare:
- Algeria
- Angola
- Indonesia
- Mozambique
- portions of the Wars of Scottish Independence; notably, actions led by Robert the Bruce
- Anglo-Irish War 1919-1921
- Viet-Cong forces throughout the Vietnam War in the early 1960s.
In many cases, guerrilla tactics allow a small force to hold off a much larger and better equipped enemy for a long time, as in the Second Chechen War and the Second Seminole War.
Guerrillas in Europe
Introduction
The well-known first aspects of guerrilla warfare occurred in what is now Israel with the guerrilla leader Judas Maccabaeus, described in the books of Maccabees in the Apocrypha in the Bible. For years he fought off the Seleucids. In centuries of history, many guerrilla movements appeared in Europe to fight foreign occupation forces. The tactics of Roman dictator Quintus Fabius Maximus against Hannibal could be considered a predecessor of guerrilla tactics. In expanding their own Empire, the Romans encountered numerous examples of guerrilla resistance to their legions. During The Deluge in Poland guerrilla tactics were applied. In the 19th century, peoples of the Balkans used guerrilla tactics to fight the Ottoman empire. In 17th century Ireland, Irish irregulars called tories and rapparees used guerrilla warfare in the Irish Confederate Wars and the Williamite war in Ireland. In India in the 17th Century, an Indian self-proclaimed leader and king "Shivaji Bhonsle" revolted against the ruling Mughal using guerrilla tactics.
Europe 1800-1900
Napoleonic Wars
In the Napoleonic Wars many of the armies lived off the land. This often led to some resistance by the local population if the army did not pay fair prices for produce they consumed. Usually this resistance was sporadic, and not very successful, so is not classified as guerrilla action. There are three notable exceptions though:
- The rebellion in the Tyrol of 1809 led by Andréas Hofer.
- In Napoleon's invasion of Russia of 1812 two actions were ordered by Tsar Alexander which could be seen as initiating guerrilla tactics. The Burning of Moscow after it had been occupied by the Napoleon's Grand Army, so depriving the French of shelter in the city, is a classic guerrilla action. The second was his imperial command that the Russian serfs should attack the French. This did not so much spark a guerrilla war as encourage a revengeful slaughter.
- In the Peninsular War the British gave aid to the Spanish guerrillas who tied down tens of thousands of French troops. The British gave this aid because it cost them much less than it would have done to equip British soldiers to face the French troops in conventional warfare. This was one of the most successful partisan wars in history and is the origin of the word guerrilla in the English language.
Others
In 1848, both The Nation and The United Irishman advocated guerilla warfare to overthrow English rule in Ireland.
The Poles used guerrilla warfare during the January Uprising.
Europe 1900 – 2000
Anglo–Irish War
The wars between Ireland and the United Kingdom have been long and over the centuries have covered the full spectrum of the types of warfare. The Irish fought the first successful 20th century war of independence against the British Empire and the United Kingdom. After the military failure of the Easter Rising in 1916, the Irish Republican Army (IRA) resorted to guerrilla tactics involving both urban warfare and flying columns in the countryside during the Anglo-Irish War (War of Independence) of 1919 to 1921. The British security forces were fought to a standstill and the government of the UK agreed to meet representatives of the Irish uprising to negotiate a settlement. The settlement which resulted — the Anglo-Irish Treaty — satisfied few. It created the Irish Free State of 26 counties as a dominion in the British Empire; the other 6 counties remained part of the UK. The IRA fought an unsuccessful Civil War (1921-23) against the Irish free staters using tactics similar to those used against the British but lost. The partition of Ireland laid the seeds for the later troubles.
World War II
In World War II, several guerrilla organisations (often known as resistance movements) operated in the countries occupied by Nazi Germany. These included the Polish Home Army, Soviet partisans (see also Russian Guerrilla Warfare of WWII), Yugoslav Partisans, Bulgarian NOVA ,French resistance or Maquis, Italian partisans, ELAS and royalist forces in Greece. Many of these organisations received help from the Special Operations Executive (SOE) which along with the commandos was initiated by Winston Churchill to ""set Europe ablaze". The SOE was originally designated as 'Section D' of MI6 but its aid to resistance movements to start fires clashed with MI6's primary role as an intelligence gathering agency. When Britain was under threat of invasion, SOE created Auxiliary Units to conduct guerrilla warfare in the event of invasion. Not only did SOE help the resistance to tie down many German units as garrison troops, so directly aiding the conventional war effort, but also guerrilla incidents in occupied countries were useful in the propaganda war, helping to repudiate German claims that the occupied countries were pacified and broadly on the side of the Germans. When the USA entered the war the US Office of Strategic Services (OSS) co-operated and enhanced the work of SOE as well as working on its own initiatives in the Far East.
Japans invasion of China also prompted guerilla activity in rural areas of occupied China.
Post World War II
After World War II, during 1940s and 1950s, thousands of fighters in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania participated in unsuccessful guerrilla warfare against Soviet occupation.
In the late 1960s the Troubles started in Northern Ireland. They had their seeds in the Anglo-Irish War, and came to an end with the signing of the Good Friday Agreement in the mid-1990s (1998). The peace is fragile and it is too early to tell if a permanent end to the conflict has occurred and which group, if any, won. Although both loyalist and republican paramilitaries carried out terrorist atrocities against civilians which were often tit-for-tat, a case can be made for saying that attacks such as the Provisional IRA carried out on British soldiers at Warrenpoint in 1979 was a well planned guerrilla ambush . The PIRA, Loyalist paramilitaries and various anti-Good Friday Agreement splinter-groups could be called guerrillas but are usually called terrorists by both the British and Irish governments. The news media such as the BBC and CNN will often use the term "gunmen" as in "IRA gunmen" or "Loyalist gunmen" committed a "terrorist" act. Since 1995 CNN also uses guerrilla as in "IRA guerrilla" and "Protestant guerrilla" . Reuters, in accordance with its principle of not using the word terrorist except in direct quotes, refers to "guerrilla groups".
Europe post-2000
Currently, the Basque ETA and Corsican FLNC and other groups such as the Greek Marxist Revolutionary Organization 17 November claim to be guerrillas, but are commonly recognized as terrorists since they almost exclusively murder civilians instead of attacking legitimate military targets, and this is how the governments and media of their respective countries prefer to refer to them.
The ongoing war between pro-independence groups in Chechnya and the Russian government is currently the most active guerrilla war in Europe. Most of the incidents reported by the Western news media are very gory terrorist acts against Russian civilians committed by Chechen separatists outside Chechnya. However, within Chechnya the war has many of the characteristics of a classic guerrilla war. See the article History of Chechnya for more details.
Guerrillas in the American Revolutionary War
While the American Revolutionary War is often thought of as a guerrilla war, guerrilla tactics were uncommon, and almost all of the battles involved conventional set-piece battles. Some of the confusion may be due to the fact that generals George Washington and Nathaniel Greene successfully used a strategy of harassment and progressively grinding down British forces instead of seeking a decisive battle, in a classic example of asymmetric warfare. Nevertheless the theater tactics used by most of the American forces were those of conventional warfare. One of the exceptions was in the south, where the brunt of the war was upon militia forces who fought the enemy British troops and their Loyalist supporters, but used concealment, surprise, and other guerrilla tactics to much advantage. General Francis Marion of South Carolina, who often attacked the British at unexpected places and then would fade into the swamps by the time the British were able to get organized enough to return fire, was named by them The Swamp Fox. However, even in the south, most of the major engagements were set-piece battles of conventional warfare. See also Ethan Allen and the Green Mountain Boys, for another Revolutionary example.
Guerrillas in the American Civil War
Irregular warfare in the American Civil War followed the strictures of irregular warfare in 19th century Europe. Structually, irregular warfare can be divided into three different types conducted during the Civil War: 'People's War', 'partisan warfare', and 'raiding warfare'. The concept of 'People's war,' first described by Clausewitz in On War, was the closest example of a mass guerrilla movement in the era. In general, this type of irregular warfare was conducted in the hinterland of the Border States (Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, and northwestern Virginia), and was marked by a vicious neighbor against neighbor quality. One such example was the opposing irregular forces operating in Missouri and northern Arkansas from 1862 to 1865, most of which were pro-Confederate or pro-Union in name only and preyed on civilians and isolated military forces of both sides with little regard of politics. From these semi-organized guerrillas, several groups formed and were given some measure of legitimacy by their governments. Quantrill's Raiders, who terrorized pro-Union civilians and fought Federal troops in large areas of Missouri and Kansas, was one such unit. Another notorious unit, with debatable ties to the Confederate military, was led by Champ Ferguson along the Kentucky-Tennessee border. Ferguson became one of the only figures of Confederate cause to be executed after the war. Dozens of other small, localized bands terrorized the countryside throughout the border region during the war, bringing total war to the area that lasted until the end of the Civil War and, in some areas, beyond.
Partisan warfare, in contrast, more closely resembles Commando operations of the Twentieth Century. Partisans were small units of conventional forces, controlled and organized by a military force for operations behind enemy lines. The 1862 Partisan Ranger Act passed by the Confederate Congress authorized the formation of these units and gave them legitimacy, which placed them in a different category than the common 'bushwhacker' or 'guerrilla'. John Singleton Mosby formed a partisan unit during the American Civil War, which was very effective in tying down Federal forces behind Union lines in northern Virginia in the last two years of the war.
Lastly, deep raids by conventional cavalry forces were often considered 'irregular' in nature. The "Partisan Brigades" of Nathan Bedford Forrest and John Hunt Morgan operated as part of the cavalry forces of the Confederate Army of Tennessee in 1862 and 1863. They were given specific missions to destroy logistical hubs, railroad bridges, and other strategic targets to support the greater mission of the Army of Tennessee. By mid-1863, with the destruction of Morgan's raiders during the Great Raid of 1863, the Confederacy conducted few deep cavalry raids in the latter years of the war, mostly due to the losses in experienced horsemen and the offensive operations of the Union army. Federal cavalry conducted several successful raids during the war but in general used their cavalry forces in a more conventional role. A good exception was the 1863 Grierson's Raid, which did much to set the stage for General Ulysses S. Grant's victory during the Vicksburg Campaign.
Federal counter-guerrilla operations were very successful in preventing the success of Confederate guerrilla warfare. In Arkansas, Federal forces used a wide variety of strategies to defeat irregulars. These included the use of Arkansas Unionist forces as anti-guerrilla troops, the use of riverine forces such as gunboats to control the waterways, and the provost marshal military law enforcement system to spy on suspected guerrillas and to imprison those captured. Against Confederate raiders, the Federal army developed an effective cavalry themselves and reinforced that system by a large number of blockhouses and fortification to defend strategic targets. Federal attempts to defeat Mosby's Partisan Rangers fell short of success due to Mosby's use of very small units (10–15 men) operating in areas considered friendly to the Rebel cause.
In the late 20th century several historians have focused on the non-use of guerrilla warfare to prolong the war. Near the end of the war, there were those in the Confederate government, namely | | |